Heterogeneous returns to chemical fertilizer at the intensive margins: Insights from Nepal

Increased fertilizer use is considered important for agricultural development in low-income countries. Promoting increased use of chemical fertilizer by lowering its price may be ineffective if demand is price inelastic. In theory, the price elasticity of demand depends on the returns to its use, but the evidence is scarce. Furthermore, while returns are often estimated for small changes in chemical fertilizer use, returns to larger changes in its use (intensive margins) are less understood. Through the inter-zonal comparisons in Nepal, we provide indicative evidence that greater returns to chemical fertilizer are associated with greater price elasticities of demand. Moreover, the evidence suggests that returns at the intensive margins, rather than returns to small changes, may largely account for inter-zonal differences in returns to chemical fertilizer within Nepal. The results suggest that better understanding the returns at the intensive margins is critical for effective agricultural inputs policies in developing countries.     

Remittance,Institutions and Investment Volatility Interactions: An Intercontinental Analysis

Generating massive investment for growth and development has been one of the main policy goals of most economies around the globe. Countries, most especially developing ones, are highly susceptible to investment volatility owing largely to the fragile nature of their economies as well as weaknesses in terms of dysfunctional institutions. Therefore, sound economic management suggests the need to better understand possible sources for mitigating the adverse effects of investment volatility. Remittances have been identified as important capital flows which do a good job of dousing macroeconomic volatilities. It is on this basis that the study sought to uncover the causal relationship between remittances and investment volatility via the intermediating role of institutions. Using a panel of 70 countries and the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, three insightful outcomes come to the fore. First, remittances played countercyclical roles across the estimated regressions. Second, institutional quality had no significant role in mitigating investment volatility and lastly, the interactive terms of both remittances and institutions significantly mitigated the negative impacts of investment volatility with the exception of the political component of the institutional architecture. Policy suggestions are drawn based on our results.     

Generalized runs tests to detect randomness in hedge funds returns

The major contribution of this paper is to make use of generalized runs tests (Cho and White, 2011) to analyze the randomness, i.e. the lack of persistence, in both absolute and relative returns of hedge funds. We find that about 42% of the HFR universe exhibit iid absolute returns over the period spanning 2000 to 2012. These funds are mainly found in proportions within the Macro and Equity Hedge strategies. A similar result holds for relative returns. We also find that funds having non-iid returns often exhibit ARCH effects and structural breaks, with largest breaks located within financial crises. Also, only a small percentage displays persistence in their relative performance, 8.2% to 16.7% of the universe, mainly found in proportions within the Relative Value and Event-Driven strategies. The robustness of results is challenged by implementing the tests on a crisis-free period. We find similar results for absolute returns. For relative ones, differences appear across strategies and benchmarks, but still both ARCH and breaks are present. Our work contributes to the hedge fund literature in terms of methodology, portfolio allocation, and performance measurement.     

Time-varying inter-urban housing price spillovers in China: Causes and consequences

The spatial spillovers of housing prices across regions are well documented by a large body of previous studies. This paper tries to investigate the dynamic (time-varying) evolution of spatial interactions and their underlying driving factors intensively. Using a recently developed Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) model, this paper examines the time-varying spatial spillovers of housing prices in 70 major and median cities of China from 2006 to 2019. We find that the GAS model can well capture the impact of time-varying critical events of Chinese real estate market on the whole. However, different regions display heterogeneous variation patterns over time. Further investigation shows that inter-regional labor mobility and trades are two major channels, accounting for 1.25% and 2.58% of the monthly standard deviations of spatial spillover effects from one city to another, respectively. We also characterize and distinguish between three time-varying patterns of spatial spillovers within different regions of China. Our results shed lights on the understanding of spatial spillovers across regional real estate markets across different city network structures within China.     

Foreign direct investment and economic growth: Is more financial development better?

We investigate the extent to which an increase in financial development affects the positive effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth. Although the financial sector is beneficial for economic growth, the effect of further financial development on growth is found to become insignificant. Using a dynamic panel threshold model on 62 middle- and high-income countries spanning the period 1987–2016, we re-examine the possible nonlinearity between finance, foreign direct investment, and growth. Consistent with the “vanishing effect” of financial development, we find significant evidence that foreign direct investment fosters growth in general, but the growth effect of foreign direct investment becomes negligible when the ratio of private sector credit to gross domestic product exceeds 95.6%. This finding is robust to different econometric methods, various subsamples and interaction analyses, and distinct financial development indicators.     

Cournot games with biconcave demand

Biconcavity is a simple condition on inverse demand that corresponds to the ordinary concept of concavity after simultaneous parameterized transformations of price and quantity. The notion is employed here in the framework of the homogeneous-good Cournot model with potentially heterogeneous firms. The analysis leads to unified conditions, respectively, for the existence of a pure-strategy equilibrium via nonincreasing best-response selections, for existence via quasiconcavity, and for the uniqueness of the equilibrium. The usefulness of the generalizations is illustrated in cases where inverse demand is either “nearly linear” or isoelastic. It is also shown that commonly made assumptions regarding large outputs are often redundant.     

Consumers’ willingness-to-pay for food safety labels in an emerging market: The case of fresh produce in Thailand

Food safety systems in emerging markets are currently facing a transformation period, becoming more stringent because of an increasing demand for safer food. Consequently, policy makers need to find strategies to increase food safety while giving the industry time to improve their performance. In Thailand, policy makers have adopted the strategy of upgrading food safety standards gradually. Government and private food safety brands and labels were introduced onto the market but little is known whether Thai consumers have preferences for them or not. This study is aimed at evaluating Thai consumers’ preferences for food safety labels and brands on fresh produce, using a surveyed based on discrete-choice experiments. A sample of 350 Thai consumers was surveyed in Bangkok and Nonthaburi in 2013. Quota sampling according to the shopping outlets and convenience sampling methods were adopted. Two hundred respondents were recruited at fresh-food markets and 150 respondents were recruited at supermarkets. We found that consumers are willing-to-pay more for both government led food safety label and private brands, but that there is high heterogeneity in their preferences. The high degree of social desirability for food safety labels confirms that food safety labelling policy should be supported. However, the provision of information and credibility are vital in order to mitigate the risk of consumer deception by self-claimed labels.     

A Generalized Nash Equilibrium network model for post-disaster humanitarian relief

We develop a Generalized Nash Equilibrium network model for post-disaster humanitarian relief by nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). NGOs derive utility from providing relief supplies to victims of the disaster at demand points in a supply chain context while competing with each other for financial funds provided by donations. The shared constraints consist of lower and upper bounds for demand for relief items at the demand points to reduce materiel convergence or congestion. This game theory problem is reformulated as an optimization problem and numerical examples and a theoretical case study on Hurricane Katrina given.     

Variation diminishing property of densities of uniform generalized order statistics

Let f _*,r , r ≥ 1, denote the density function of rth uniform generalized order statistics as defined by Kamps (1995) or Cramer and Kamps (2003). We prove the following variation diminishing property: the number of zeros in (0,1) of any linear combination does not exceed the number of sign changes in the sequence (a ₁, . . . ,a _r ). This result is applied to study monotonicity and convexity properties of f _*,r .     

金融发展影响能源消费结构吗?——跨国经验分析

金融发展经常被认为是经济增长的一个重要推动因素.同样的,金融发展也可能会影响能源需求.金融发展可以通过促进金融系统发展、带动经济增长并促进产业结构调整这样的传导途径,使能源消费结构发生变动.本文对全球55 个国家23 年(1985～2007)的面板数据库的研究发现,金融发展的确会影响能源消费与需求,进而影响能源消费结构的变动.实证结果表明,金融发展会促进"化石燃料"能源和替代能源消费的增加,减少可再生能源的消费,对能源消费结构的改善有着一定的促进作用.所以,在制定能源相关政策和对高能耗部门进行产业调整时,要考虑金融发展的影响.